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Epidemics on networks with preventive rewiring
被引:6
|作者:
Ball, Frank
[1
]
Britton, Tom
[2
]
机构:
[1] Univ Nottingham, Sch Math Sci, Univ Pk, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England
[2] Stockholm Univ, Dept Math, Stockholm, Sweden
基金:
瑞典研究理事会;
关键词:
branching process;
limit theorems;
random graph;
rewiring;
SIR epidemic;
MODELS;
LIMIT;
SIZE;
D O I:
10.1002/rsa.21066
中图分类号:
TP31 [计算机软件];
学科分类号:
081202 ;
0835 ;
摘要:
A stochastic SIR (susceptible -> infective -> recovered) model is considered for the spread of an epidemic on a network, described initially by an Erdos-Renyi random graph, in which susceptible individuals connected to infectious neighbors may drop or rewire such connections. A novel construction of the model is used to derive a deterministic model for epidemics started with a positive fraction initially infected and prove convergence of the scaled stochastic model to that deterministic model as the population size n ->infinity. For epidemics initiated by a single infective that take off, we prove that for part of the parameter space, in the limit as n ->infinity, the final fraction infected tau(lambda) is discontinuous in the infection rate lambda at its threshold lambda c, thus not converging to 0 as lambda down arrow lambda c. The discontinuity is particularly striking when rewiring is necessarily to susceptible individuals in that tau(lambda) jumps from 0 to 1 as lambda passes through lambda c.
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页码:250 / 297
页数:48
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