Modeling Oil Futures Market Dynamic Using Complex Adaptive System Simulation

The factors that affect crude oil price are various and interrelated, composing a complex oil price system. With the development of the oil futures market, the oil price is driven by virtual demand. The problem becomes even more severe due to the virtual demand created by speculators. On the basis of complex adaptive system theory, we build a model of crude oil futures market by using a high level Petri Net, which can describe the agent's characteristics and its behavior details. While this model should be served as the foundation for further simulation programming in future work, based on this, we attempt to quantitatively study how virtual demand driving oil price volatility.