Intra-day Electricity Demand and Temperature

被引：4
|
作者：
McCulloch, Lames [1 ]
Ignatieva, Katja [1 ]
机构：
[1] UNSW Australia, Sch Risk & Actuarial Studies, Business Sch, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
来源：
ENERGY JOURNAL | 2020年 / 41卷 / 03期
关键词：
High Frequency; Electricity; Instantaneous Demand; Temperature; Generalised Additive Model (GAM); CLIMATE-CHANGE; CONSUMPTION; LOAD; METHODOLOGY; IMPACT;
D O I：
10.5547/01956574.41.3.jmcc
中图分类号：
F [经济];
学科分类号：
02 ;
摘要：
The objective of this paper is to explain the relationship between high frequency electricity demand, intra-day temperature variation and time. Using the Generalised Additive Model (GAM) framework we link high frequency (5-minute) aggregate electricity demand in Australia to the time of the day, time of the year and intra-day temperature. We document a strong relationship between high frequency electricity demand and intra-day temperature. We show a superior model fit when using Daylight Saving Time (DST), or clock time, instead of the standard (solar) time. We introduce the time weighted temperature model that captures instantaneous electricity demand sensitivity to temperature as a function of the human daily activity cycle, by assigning different temperature signal weighting based on the DST time. The results on DST and time weighted temperature modelling are novel in the literature and are important innovations in high frequency electricity demand forecasting.
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页码：161 / 181
页数：21
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