Population viability analysis of the Mato Grosso Antbird (Cercomacra melanaria) in the Pantanal of Mato Grosso, Brazil

Understanding the interaction between habitat loss, environmental uncertainty, demographic stochasticity and genetics are the goal of population viability analysis. Minimum viable population (MVP) size is an estimate of the number of individuals of a species that will allow the continuation of the population into the foreseeable future. Here, we analyzed the population viability of Mato Grosso Antbird (Cercomacra melanaria), an endemic member of the Thamnophilidae from Pantanal, Brazil. We focus on estimating the MVP. We used the program VORTEX to generate simulations for MVP based on demographic and environmental variables, including catastrophes, carrying capacity, reproduction and survival. We also used sensitivity analysis to determine which variables are most influential in viability. We conclude that the Mato Grosso Antbird has low risk of extinction in the next 100 years under current conditions (quasi-extinction probability of 0.002). The MVP of Mato Grosso Antbird was estimated to be 160 individuals. The most influential demographic parameter is the proportion of adult females that reproduce each year. Our results corroborate the classification of the Mato Grosso Antbird as "Least Concern" by IUCN criterion.