Projecting long-term care expenditure in four European Union member states: The influence of demographic scenarios

被引：34

作者：

Costa-Font, Joan ^{[1
,2
]}

Wittenberg, Raphael ^{[3
]}

Patxot, Concepcio ^{[2
]}

Comas-Herrera, Adelina ^{[3
]}

Gori, Cristiano ^{[4
]}

di Maio, Alessandra ^{[4
]}

Pickard, Linda ^{[3
]}

Pozzi, Alessandro ^{[4
]}

Rothgang, Heinz ^{[5
]}

机构：

[1] London Sch Econ, LSE Hlth & Social Care, London WC2A 2AE, England

[2] Univ Barcelona, Res Ctr Econ Social Policy CAEPS, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain

[3] London Sch Econ, LSE Hlth & Social Care, PSSRU, London WC2A 2AE, England

[4] Ist Ric Sociale, Bologna, Italy

[5] Univ Bremen, Ctr Social Policy Res, Bremen, Germany

来源：

SOCIAL INDICATORS RESEARCH | 2008年 / 86卷 / 02期

关键词：

population projections; long-term care; life expectancy and mortality;

D O I：

10.1007/s11205-007-9140-4

中图分类号：

C [社会科学总论];

学科分类号：

03 ; 0303 ;

摘要：

This study examines the sensitivity of future long-term care demand and expenditure estimates to official demographic projections in four selected European countries: Germany, Spain, Italy and the United Kingdom. It uses standardised methodology in the form of a macro-simulation exercise and finds evidence for significant differences in assumptions about demographic change and its effect on the demand for long-term care, and on relative and absolute long-term care expenditure. It concludes that mortality-rate assumptions can have a considerable influence on welfare policy planning. Relative dispersion between country-specific and Eurostat official estimates was found to be higher for the United Kingdom and Germany than for Italy and Spain, suggesting that demographic projections had a greater influence in those countries.

引用

页码：303 / 321

页数：19

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