Projecting Long-Term Care Expenditure in Four European Union Member States: The Influence of Demographic Scenarios

被引：0
|
作者：
Joan Costa-Font
Raphael Wittenberg
Concepció Patxot
Adelina Comas-Herrera
Cristiano Gori
Alessandra di Maio
Linda Pickard
Alessandro Pozzi
Heinz Rothgang
机构：
[1] Universitat the Barcelona,Research Centre on the Economics of Social Policy (CAEPS)
[2] London School of Economics,LSE Health and Social Care
[3] London School of Economics,PSSRU, LSE Health and Social Care
[4] Istituto per la Ricerca Sociale,Centre for Social Policy Research
[5] Bremen University,undefined
来源：
Social Indicators Research | 2008年 / 86卷
关键词：
Population projections; Long-term care; Life Expectancy and mortality;
D O I：
暂无
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
This study examines the sensitivity of future long-term care demand and expenditure estimates to official demographic projections in four selected European countries: Germany, Spain, Italy and the United Kingdom. It uses standardised methodology in the form of a macro-simulation exercise and finds evidence for significant differences in assumptions about demographic change and its effect on the demand for long-term care, and on relative and absolute long-term care expenditure. It concludes that mortality-rate assumptions can have a considerable influence on welfare policy planning. Relative dispersion between country-specific and Eurostat official estimates was found to be higher for the United Kingdom and Germany than for Italy and Spain, suggesting that demographic projections had a greater influence in those countries.
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页码：303 / 321
页数：18
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