Computer Simulation as a Forecasting Tool of Socio-Economic Dynamics (the Sochi Resort Region)

This issue is devoted to urban dynamics research and modelling of Sochi resort region. Sochi is a Russian resort town, situated near the southern Russian border. The method of research is a system-dynamic simulation. The model of socioeconomic system of the city of Sochi was built in the software environment Powersim. The purposes of modelling are: the forecast of the urban dynamics at preservation of the current conditions (a rating of the current management strategy, which is determined by a set of regulators); the analysis of functioning of a social-economic system - definition of possible ways of influence on a situation (selection of potential regulators); comparison of various scripts of the region development, proceeding from various administrative decisions (the choice between several regulators and their various combinations); planning budgetary charges supporting urban economy for the purpose of increasing the quality of life of the region inhabitants. On this model were made several computational experiments, and scenario analysis, which results can provide the decision maker with the needed information and forecast data.