A Risk Analysis Information Model with Uncertainty for Flood Hazard of Dam-Break

Risk analysis for flood hazard due to dam break is complex system problem. An information model for integrated complex factors of the system is useful for dam break risk analysis. Firstly multiple factors are analyzed using scenario analysis method, including factors and their uncertainty in environmental, engineering operation and hazard consequences. Then an information model of risk analysis for hazard risk body is presented, which includes shallow wave equation and cellular automaton method for flood affected extent, probability model for loss of human and property, and evidence theory for vulnerability assessment of human in hazard extent. Finally an information model framework of hazard risk analysis is given.