Uncertainty analysis of dam-break flood risk consequences under the influence of non-structural measures

被引:2
|
作者
Wang, Yakun [1 ,2 ]
Fu, Zhimin [3 ]
Cheng, Zhaoyang [4 ]
Xiang, Yan [2 ]
Chen, Jiankang [1 ]
Zhang, Pengtao [1 ]
Yang, Xin [1 ]
机构
[1] Sichuan Univ, Coll Water Resource & Hydropower, 24 South Sect 1,Yihuan Rd, Chengdu 610065, Peoples R China
[2] Nanjing Hydraul Res Inst, Nanjing 210029, Peoples R China
[3] Hohai Univ, Coll Hydrol & Water Resources, Nanjing 210098, Peoples R China
[4] Changjiang Survey Planning Design & Res Co Ltd, Wuhan 430010, Peoples R China
基金
国家重点研发计划; 中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词
Dam break consequences; Life loss; Non-structural measures; Monte -Carlo method; Agent-based model; Uncertainty analysis; GOUHOU ROCKFILL DAM; FAILURE; FRAMEWORK; MECHANISM; DISASTER; MODEL;
D O I
10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104265
中图分类号
P [天文学、地球科学];
学科分类号
07 ;
摘要
Climate change is causing an increase in the frequency of extreme disasters, increasing the likelihood of dam failures and floods. At the same time, the concentration of human activities in certain areas has increased the severity of the consequences of dam failures, requiring the establishment of more robust and reliable emergency management systems to protect lives and property. Non-structural measures serve as flexible and adaptable emergency mitigation measures that can be dynamically adjusted during rescue operations and enhance the resilience of urban systems. This article focuses on the consequences of life loss due to dam failure. Taking China's Yuyao City and SMH Reservoir as the research object, it analyzes the emergency response process after the disaster occurred, identifies the factors influencing the life loss, and selects nonstructural measures such as disaster identification warnings, urban emergency management responses, evacuation routes, and destination selection as key areas of study. The research examines the impact of non-structural measures on the consequences of life loss and provides recommendations and suggestions. The results indicate that effective non-structural measures can significantly reduce the life loss in flood disasters.
引用
收藏
页数:19
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