Verification of SPE probability forecasts at the Space Environment Prediction Center (SEPC)

In space weather forecasting, forecast verification is necessary so that the forecast quality can be assessed. This paper provides an example of how to choose and devise verification methods and techniques according to different space weather forecast products. Solar proton events (SPEs) are hazardous space weather events, and forecasting them is one of the major tasks of the Space Environment Prediction Center (SEPC) at the National Space Science Center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Through analyzing SPE occurrence characteristics, SPE forecast properties, and verification requirements at SEPC, verification methods for SPE probability forecasts are identified, and verification results obtained. Overall, SPE probability forecasts at SEPC exhibit good accuracy, reliability, and discrimination. Compared with climatology and persistence forecasts, the SPE forecasts are more accurate. However, the forecasts for SPE onset days are substantially underestimated and need to be considerably improved.