Evaluation of the Ability of CMIP6 Global Climate Models to Simulate Precipitation in the Yellow River Basin, China

被引:18
|
作者
Wang, Lin [1 ,2 ]
Zhang, Jianyun [1 ,2 ,3 ]
Shu, Zhangkang [1 ,2 ]
Wang, Yan [1 ,2 ,3 ]
Bao, Zhenxin [1 ,2 ,3 ]
Liu, Cuishan [1 ,2 ,3 ]
Zhou, Xiong [4 ]
Wang, Guoqing [1 ,2 ,3 ]
机构
[1] Nanjing Hydraul Res Inst, State Key Lab Hydrol Water Resources & Hydraul En, Nanjing, Peoples R China
[2] Res Ctr Climate Change, Nanjing, Peoples R China
[3] Yangtze Inst Conservat & Dev, Nanjing, Peoples R China
[4] Beijing Normal Univ, China Canada Ctr Energy Environm & Ecol Res, UofR BNU, Beijing, Peoples R China
关键词
CMIP6; climate model; precipitation simulation; comprehensive assessment; the yellow river basin; PROJECTION; UNCERTAINTY; EXTREMES; YANGTZE;
D O I
10.3389/feart.2021.751974
中图分类号
P [天文学、地球科学];
学科分类号
07 ;
摘要
Choosing an appropriate GCM (Global Climate Model, GCM) is of great significance for the simulation of the hydrological cycle over a basin under future climate scenarios. In this study, the Rank Score Method (RS) with eight indicators were applied to comprehensively evaluate the suitability of 19 GCMs issued in the Sixth Global Atmosphere and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to the Yellow River Basin (YRB). The results indicated that: 1) The GCMs perform differently in simulating precipitation over the YRB with the top six GCMs ranking from MRI-ESM2-0, ACCESS-CM2, CNRM-CM6-1, CNRM-ESM2-1, FGOALS-f3-L, to MPI-ESM1-2-HR. 2) Most GCMs overestimated the precipitation, and poorly simulated the phase distribution of extremes mainly due to overstimulation of wet season span and precipitation amount in the season, although all GCMs could capture decadal feature of annual precipitation. Meanwhile, it is also found that most GCMs underestimated summer precipitation and overestimated spring precipitation. 3) The GCMs well simulated the spatial distribution of annual precipitation, with an overestimation in the source area, and an underestimation in the northern part of the middle reaches of YRB.
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页数:12
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