Projecting Future Precipitation in the Yellow River Basin Based on CMIP6 Models

Water resources severely constrain high-quality development in the Yellow River basin (YRB). Predicting the trend of precipitation on the basis of satisfying precision has important guiding significance for future regional development. Using the projected precipitation in 12 CMIP6 models, this study applied the most appropriate correction method for each model from four quantile-mapping methods and projected future changes of annual precipitation in the YRB and three key regions. The projection uncertainty was quantitatively assessed by addressing model spread (MS) and range. The precipitation anomaly under all four scenarios would increase for the YRB and key regions. The increasing rates (the linear coefficient) from Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 126 (SSP126) to SSP585 were 30-62, 60-103, 84-122, and 134-204 mm (100 yr)(-1), respectively. The largest increase was the sediment-yielding region, which reached about 40-60 mm in 2031-60 and 70-125 mm in 2061-90. The 400-mm isohyet was projected to move continuously to the northwest in the future. The uncertainty quantified by MS was reduced by 85.9%-94.6%, and projection ranges were less than 50 mm (about 10% of climatology) in most parts of YRB. From the increasing trend of future precipitation in the YRB, it can be inferred that the arid region will shrink. It may be a good opportunity to implement ecological conservation and high-quality development of the YRB successfully. Significance StatementWe want to understand the spatial-temporal evolution pattern of future precipitation in the Yellow River basin (YRB) under climate change scenarios. In the future, the precipitation in the YRB and the three key regions will increase, with the sediment-yielding region increasing the most, and the arid region will shrink. Our findings confirm that the spatial-temporal patterns of precipitation in the YRB will change significantly under climate change scenarios. These findings will guide ecological protection and regional social and economic development in the YRB. Future research should focus on adaptation strategies of agricultural production patterns to climate change.