Approximate is better than "exact" for interval estimation of binomial proportions

被引:2705
|
作者
Agresti, A [1 ]
Coull, BA
机构
[1] Univ Florida, Dept Stat, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA
[2] Harvard Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Biostat, Boston, MA 02115 USA
来源
AMERICAN STATISTICIAN | 1998年 / 52卷 / 02期
关键词
confidence interval; discrete distribution; exact inference; Poisson distribution; small sample; score test;
D O I
10.2307/2685469
中图分类号
O21 [概率论与数理统计]; C8 [统计学];
学科分类号
020208 ; 070103 ; 0714 ;
摘要
For interval estimation of a proportion, coverage probabilities tend to be too large for "exact" confidence intervals based on inverting the binomial test and too small for the interval based on inverting the Wald large-sample normal test (i.e., sample proportion +/- z-score x estimated standard error). Wilson's suggestion of inverting the related score test with null rather than estimated standard error yields coverage probabilities close to nominal confidence levels, even for very small sample sizes. The 95% score interval has similar behavior as the adjusted Wald interval obtained after adding two "successes" and two "failures" to the sample. In elementary courses, with the score and adjusted Wald methods it is unnecessary to provide students with awkward sample size guidelines.
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页码:119 / 126
页数:8
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