Using genetic programming for symbolic regression to detect climate change signatures

Most often, climate change signals are slow moving (in human terms), low amplitude changes embedded in high amplitude, noisy data. There are many techniques for extracting such signals. This paper introduces a technique which in contrast with empirical methods produces a decomposition of a time series into a set of equations plus a "residual". This is referred to as stepwise symbolic secomposition (SSD). The extraction of symbolic equations in lieu of empirical functions assists with characterization of time series. This paper takes two examples of climate data, and applies two different techniques for characterising the low amplitude, slow change embedded therein. The record of CO2 levels at Mauna-Loa since March 1958, is used to demonstrate and contrast empirical mode decomposition (EMD), and SSD. The mean monthly tidal gauge records from the small number of gauges which have more than 120 years of data are analysed in more detail by SSD, then three techniques are used to characterize the residual. The techniques are (a) LOESS smoothing, (b) EMD, and (c) high order polynomial regression. SSD uses a genetic programming system called Eureqa from Cornell Creative Machines Lab guided by an information metric, to extract the most compact informative function it can at each step; the process is repeated on the residuals until no sufficiently informative function is found. EMD and SSD are in stark contrast in the order in which signals are decomposed. EMD extracts high frequency components first. SSD extracts components based on a mixture of parsimonious representation and variance explained. EMD leaves a low frequency filtrate of the signal in its residue, SSD tends to operate as a broad band filter, leaving high frequency noise plus a possible low frequency signal. EMD, LOESS and polynomial fitting all serve to extract low frequency components of the signal from this SSD residual. For the set of tidal gauge data, in the absence of a change in global sea level rise, the SSD procedure should randomize all segments of residual signals equally - the residual should be whitened with respect to the initial signal. It is shown however that late 20th century portions of the residuals show behaviour that is consistent with accelerating sea level rise in keeping with the bulk of the literature.