SIMPLE METHODOLOGY FOR LONG-TERM PREDICTION OF GRAIN QUALITY

The main aim: to develop the universal integrated methodology and statistical-simulation model for long-term forecasting the content of toxic chemical elements in grain crop yields. Objects. The study was based on the system approach and carried out by the example of wheat cultivated in Altai Krai - one of the main grain-producing regions of Russia. Wheat crops were sampled in 10 municipal districts with different climatic conditions. A total of 19 chemical elements (Pb, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Zn, Al, As, Ba, Ca, Fe, K, Mg, Mn, Mo, Na, P) content was studied. It is shown that concentrations of Pb (lead), Cr (chrome), Cu (copper) and Na (sodium) in wheat grain depend on climatic characteristics of the cultivation area. Methods. Regression dependences of the element content on the long-term average values of monthly air temperature and precipitation were established. Based on a regional age-long climatic cycle, normalization and spatial generalization of air temperature and precipitation providing the uniform dynamics of their relative monthly values (in percent) throughout the study region, a forecast of their changes by 2030 was made. Results. A procedure for grain sampling, GIS technologies for processing meteorological and cartographic data, methods for predicting climate changes and establishment of quantitative relationships of chemical elements content in grain with climatic characteristics - all together make up the methodology that allows developing the predictive model for toxic substance present in wheat. The model was used for estimation of Pb, Cr, Cu and Na changes in wheat grain by 2030. The content of other elements in wheat weakly correlate with long-term changes in air temperature and precipitation; therefore, it can hardly change significantly. After 2030, concentrations of Pb, Co (cobalt) and Cr in wheat delivered to elevators from some municipal districts will exceed their maximum allowable levels for bread-grain.