Generation System Planning with Consideration of Load Forecast Uncertainty and Energy Limited Units

被引：2

作者：

Tiabrat, Pornthep ^{[1
]}

Eua-arporn, Bundhit ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Chulalongkorn Univ, Fac Engn, Dept Elect Engn, Bangkok 10330, Thailand

来源：

ECTI-CON 2008: PROCEEDINGS OF THE 2008 5TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING/ELECTRONICS, COMPUTER, TELECOMMUNICATIONS AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY, VOLS 1 AND 2 | 2008年

关键词：

Reliability assessment; loss-of-load expectation (LOLE); energy limited; Monte Carlo simulations;

D O I：

10.1109/ECTICON.2008.4600568

中图分类号：

TP [自动化技术、计算机技术];

学科分类号：

0812 ;

摘要：

This paper presents a method for generation system expansion planning with consideration of load forecast uncertainty and energy limited units. The applied method is based on predefined risk criteria, which is evaluated by a probabilistic methodology to ensure adequate and appropriate power supply for long-term demand. Monte Carlo simulation technique is applied to obtain the results which can be used to assist the decision maker in developing a power expansion plan. The proposed method has been tested with a modified Thailand power system including pumped storage units. The results illustrate (he impact of demand uncertainty on the number of new generators needed in each studied year.

引用

页码：869 / 872

页数：4

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