Predicting the main parameters of solar cycle 24 by the number of spotless days in the previous minimum

被引：1

作者：

Khlystov, A. I. ^{[1
]}

Somov, B. V. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Moscow MV Lomonosov State Univ, Sternberg State Astron Inst, Moscow 119991, Russia

来源：

IZVESTIYA ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PHYSICS | 2012年 / 48卷 / 07期

关键词：

solar activity; cycle; prediction; spotless days; MAGNETIC-FIELD; MOTION; CONVECTION;

D O I：

10.1134/S0001433812070031

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

An attempt was made to connect the number of spotless days in previous minimums of solar cycles with the main characteristics of the following cycles: height, total length, and length of the rise branch. According to the value of the sum of spotless days in the minimum of cycle 23 I DT0 pound = 800 (July 2010), the following characteristics of cycle 24 were obtained: the beginning is 2009.0 (January 2009), the length of the rise branch RW = 4.8 years, the date of the maximum is 2013.8 (October 2013), Wolf's number in the maximum WM= 63, the length of the decline branch DW = 7.8 years, the total length DTmm = 12.6 years, and the end is 2021.6 (July 2021).

引用

页码：717 / 723

页数：7

共 50 条

[31] The Minimum Between Cycle 23 and 24: Is Sunspot Number the Whole Story?
de Toma, G.
Gibson, S. E.
Emery, B. A.
Arge, C. N.
SOHO-23: UNDERSTANDING A PECULIAR SOLAR MINIMUM, 2010, 428 : 217 - +
[32] Predicting the Maximum of Solar Cycle 25: Total Power at the Cycle’s Beginning and in the Previous Cycle as Precursor
M. I. Pishkalo
I. E. Vasiljeva
Kinematics and Physics of Celestial Bodies, 2023, 39 : 225 - 238
[33] Predicting the Maximum of Solar Cycle 25: Total Power at the Cycle's Beginning and in the Previous Cycle as Precursor
Pishkalo, M. I.
Vasiljeva, I. E.
KINEMATICS AND PHYSICS OF CELESTIAL BODIES, 2023, 39 (04) : 225 - 238
[34] Prediction for the amplitude of solar cycle 24 from the pattern of activity near the cycle minimum
Pishkalo, M. I.
KINEMATICS AND PHYSICS OF CELESTIAL BODIES, 2013, 29 (01) : 37 - 43
[35] Prediction for the amplitude of solar cycle 24 from the pattern of activity near the cycle minimum
M. I. Pishkalo
Kinematics and Physics of Celestial Bodies, 2013, 29 : 37 - 43
[36] Low Solar Activity around Minimum of Cycle 23 and Expected Amplitude of Cycle 24
Watari, S.
HINODE-3: THE 3RD HINODE SCIENCE MEETING, 2012, 454 : 433 - 436
[37] An Early Prediction of Maximum Sunspot Number in Solar Cycle 24
S. Duhau
Solar Physics, 2003, 213 : 203 - 212
[38] An early prediction of maximum sunspot number in solar cycle 24
Duhau, S
SOLAR PHYSICS, 2003, 213 (01) : 203 - 212
[39] Predicting Solar Cycle 24 Using a Geomagnetic Precursor Pair
Pesnell, W. Dean
SOLAR PHYSICS, 2014, 289 (06) : 2317 - 2331
[40] Predicting Solar Cycle 24 Using a Geomagnetic Precursor Pair
W. Dean Pesnell
Solar Physics, 2014, 289 : 2317 - 2331

← 1 2 3 4 5 →