Study on the construction progress plan in Urumqi

It is hard for the starting and ending date of winter construction to be ensured. Since the periods change every year. A number of construction enterprises ignore its danger without taking winter construction measures during periods so that building project accidents often occur. So, how to confirm scientifically the dates is vital. Analysis shows that the starting and ending dates of winter construction are stochastic variables according to the probability theory and it appears Gaussian distribution. The paper attained meteorological data from Urumqi Weather Bureau to calculate the starting and ending date of high guarantee ratio in winter in Urumqi by establishing mathematical model. The paper proposes Oct 11 as starting date and April 14 as ending date of winter construction in Urumqi, because the guarantee ratio of the two dates both are 95%.