Implicit forward rents as predictors of future rents

被引：9
|
作者：
Englund, P [1 ]
Gunnelin, Å
Hoesli, M
Söderberg, B
机构：
[1] Stockholm Inst Financial Res, SE-11359 Stockholm, Sweden
[2] Stockholm Sch Econ, SE-11359 Stockholm, Sweden
[3] Royal Inst Technol, SE-10044 Stockholm, Sweden
[4] Univ Geneva, CH-1211 Geneva, Switzerland
[5] Univ Aberdeen, Sch Business, CH-1211 Geneva, Switzerland
来源：
REAL ESTATE ECONOMICS | 2004年 / 32卷 / 02期
关键词：
D O I：
10.1111/j.1080-8620.2004.00089.x
中图分类号：
F8 [财政、金融];
学科分类号：
0202 ;
摘要：
This paper investigates the relation between the term structure of rents and future spot rents. A rich database of office rental agreements for various maturities is used to estimate the term structure of rents, and from this structure implicit forward rents are extracted. The data pertain to commercial properties in the three largest Swedish cities for the period 1998-2002. A positive relation between forward and spot rents is found in some regions, but forward rents underestimate future rent levels. Another contribution of the paper lies in the area of rental index construction. We provide evidence that rental indices should not only be quality constant (i.e., control for characteristics), but should also be maturity constant.
引用
收藏
页码：183 / 215
页数：33
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