Convolutional neural networks with refined loss functions for the real-time crash risk analysis

The real-time crash risk analyses were proposed to establish the relationships between crash occurrence probability and pre-crash traffic operational conditions. Given its great application potentials that link with Active Traffic Management System (ATMS) for proactive safety management, it has become an important research area. Currently, researchers mainly developed the real-time crash risk analysis models with traffic flow descriptive statistics employed as explanatory variables and with re-sampled balanced dataset, which hold the limitations of insufficiently capturing the temporal-spatial traffic flow characteristics and failing to provide classification capabilities when deal with the imbalanced datasets. In this study, a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) modelling approach with refined loss functions has been first time introduced to the real-time crash risk analyses. The primary objectives of the proposed CNN models are: (1) utilizing the tensor-based data structure to explore the multi-dimensional, temporal-spatial correlated pre-crash operational features; and (2) optimizing the loss functions to overcome the low classification accuracy issue brought by the imbalanced data. Data from the Shanghai urban expressway system were utilized for the empirical analysis. And a total of three types of loss functions, including traditional binary cross entropy, the a-weighted cross entropy and the focal loss, were introduced and being tested with varying ratios of crash and non-crash datasets. The modeling results show that the CNN model has better classification performance compared to the traditional Multi-layer Perceptrons (MLP) model with the tensor-based structure data. Besides, the developed CNN model with focal loss function has substantial classification enhancement under the imbalanced datasets. Finally, the distributions of predicting probabilities for balanced and imbalanced datasets were plotted to understand the effects of the imbalanced dataset and revealed how the proposed CNN model with focal loss function improves the model performance.