Empirical Research on the Risk Measurement of Mortgage Loans on Rural Land Contract and Management Rights: A Case Study of Heilongjiang Province

With the methods of factor analysis, the VAR model, and the GARCH model, selecting 11 indicators related to the agricultural production conditions and rural economy in Heilongjiang Province from 2012 to 2017 as the macroeconomic indicators, and 8 indicators related to credit risk management and asset quality supervision in Heilongjiang Province within the 72 months from 2012 to 2017 as the microeconomic indicators, this paper conducted empirical research on the risk measurement of mortgage loans on rural land contract and management rights in Heilongjiang Province. The VAR of the risks of mortgage loans on rural land contract and management rights was calculated with the VAR-GARCH (1, 1) model. The VAR line chart showed that the risks of mortgage loans on rural land contract and management rights in Heilongjiang Province were at a lower level in 2012, at a stably high level from 2013 to 2016, and then relieved to some extent in 2017. At the end of the article, it was suggested that the financial environment in Heilongjiang Province should be improved and banks' internal control should be strengthened so as to promote the smooth development of mortgage loans on rural land contract and management rights.