Modeling Demand for Electric Cars - A Methodical Approach

被引：13

作者：

Link, Christoph ^{[1
]}

Raich, Ulrike ^{[1
]}

Sammer, Gerd ^{[1
]}

Stark, Juliane ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Nat Resources & Life Sci, Inst Transport Studies, A-1190 Vienna, Austria

来源：

TRANSPORT RESEARCH ARENA 2012 | 2012年 / 48卷

关键词：

Electric cars; stated preference survey; methodical aspects; multinomial logit approach; demand prediction; CHOICE;

D O I：

10.1016/j.sbspro.2012.06.1169

中图分类号：

U [交通运输];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0823 ;

摘要：

Most car users lack profound knowledge on electric cars. Feasibility studies concerning electric cars suffer from this fact, because respondents assess advantages and travel behavior restrictions incorrectly. This may result in a discrepancy between survey results and future market development, because consumer's knowledge will increase with time and in upcoming car purchase preparation. The paper presents the approach of a stated preference survey concerning car purchase, which considers several feedback loops and mechanism to guarantee realistic purchase decisions. The survey results fed in a new developed disaggregate model that allows the prediction of the new car market share of electric cars. (C) 2012 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Selection and/or peer review under responsibility of the Programme Committee of the Transport Research Arena 2012

引用

页码：1958 / 1970

页数：13

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