The future of Southeast Asia's forests

被引:165
|
作者
Estoque, Ronald C. [1 ]
Ooba, Makoto [1 ]
Avitabile, Valerio [2 ]
Hijioka, Yasuaki [1 ]
DasGupta, Rajarshi [3 ]
Togawa, Takuya [1 ]
Murayama, Yuji [4 ]
机构
[1] Natl Inst Environm Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
[2] European Commiss, Joint Res Ctr, Ispra, Italy
[3] Inst Global Environm Strategies, Hayama, Kanagawa, Japan
[4] Univ Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
基金
日本学术振兴会;
关键词
GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS; TROPICAL FORESTS; PROTECTED AREAS; DEFORESTATION RATES; CARBON SINK; LAND; TRANSITION; BIODIVERSITY; SCENARIOS; MAPS;
D O I
10.1038/s41467-019-09646-4
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
While Southeast Asia's forests play important roles in biodiversity conservation and global carbon (C) balance, the region is also a deforestation hotspot. Here, we consider the five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to portray a range of plausible futures for the region's forests, employing a state-of-the-art land change modelling procedure and remotely sensed data. We find that by 2050 under the worst-case scenario, SSP 3 (regional rivalry/a rocky road), the region's forests would shrink by 5.2 million ha. The region's aboveground forest carbon stock (AFCS) would decrease by 790 Tg C, 21% of which would be due to old-growth forest loss. Conversely, under the best-case scenario, SSP 1 (sustainability/taking the green road), the region is projected to gain 19.6 million ha of forests and 1651 Tg C of AFCS. The choice of the pathway is thus critical for the future of the region's forests and their ecosystem functions and services.
引用
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页数:12
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