The future of Southeast Asia's forests

被引：152

作者：

Estoque, Ronald C. ^{[1
]}

Ooba, Makoto ^{[1
]}

Avitabile, Valerio ^{[2
]}

Hijioka, Yasuaki ^{[1
]}

DasGupta, Rajarshi ^{[3
]}

Togawa, Takuya ^{[1
]}

Murayama, Yuji ^{[4
]}

机构：

[1] Natl Inst Environm Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan

[2] European Commiss, Joint Res Ctr, Ispra, Italy

[3] Inst Global Environm Strategies, Hayama, Kanagawa, Japan

[4] Univ Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan

来源：

NATURE COMMUNICATIONS | 2019年 / 10卷 / 1期

基金：

日本学术振兴会;

关键词：

GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS; TROPICAL FORESTS; PROTECTED AREAS; DEFORESTATION RATES; CARBON SINK; LAND; TRANSITION; BIODIVERSITY; SCENARIOS; MAPS;

D O I：

10.1038/s41467-019-09646-4

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

While Southeast Asia's forests play important roles in biodiversity conservation and global carbon (C) balance, the region is also a deforestation hotspot. Here, we consider the five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to portray a range of plausible futures for the region's forests, employing a state-of-the-art land change modelling procedure and remotely sensed data. We find that by 2050 under the worst-case scenario, SSP 3 (regional rivalry/a rocky road), the region's forests would shrink by 5.2 million ha. The region's aboveground forest carbon stock (AFCS) would decrease by 790 Tg C, 21% of which would be due to old-growth forest loss. Conversely, under the best-case scenario, SSP 1 (sustainability/taking the green road), the region is projected to gain 19.6 million ha of forests and 1651 Tg C of AFCS. The choice of the pathway is thus critical for the future of the region's forests and their ecosystem functions and services.

引用

页数：12

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