While Southeast Asia's forests play important roles in biodiversity conservation and global carbon (C) balance, the region is also a deforestation hotspot. Here, we consider the five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to portray a range of plausible futures for the region's forests, employing a state-of-the-art land change modelling procedure and remotely sensed data. We find that by 2050 under the worst-case scenario, SSP 3 (regional rivalry/a rocky road), the region's forests would shrink by 5.2 million ha. The region's aboveground forest carbon stock (AFCS) would decrease by 790 Tg C, 21% of which would be due to old-growth forest loss. Conversely, under the best-case scenario, SSP 1 (sustainability/taking the green road), the region is projected to gain 19.6 million ha of forests and 1651 Tg C of AFCS. The choice of the pathway is thus critical for the future of the region's forests and their ecosystem functions and services.
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Univ Leeds, Inst Integrat & Comparat Biol, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, EnglandUniv Leeds, Inst Integrat & Comparat Biol, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England
Edwards, David P.
Larsen, Trond H.
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Princeton Univ, Woodrow Wilson Sch, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA
Princeton Univ, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Princeton, NJ 08544 USAUniv Leeds, Inst Integrat & Comparat Biol, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England
Larsen, Trond H.
Docherty, Teegan D. S.
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Univ Leeds, Inst Integrat & Comparat Biol, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, EnglandUniv Leeds, Inst Integrat & Comparat Biol, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England
Docherty, Teegan D. S.
Ansell, Felicity A.
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Univ Leeds, Inst Integrat & Comparat Biol, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, EnglandUniv Leeds, Inst Integrat & Comparat Biol, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England
Ansell, Felicity A.
Hsu, Wayne W.
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Columbia Univ, Dept Ecol Evolut & Environm Biol, New York, NY 10027 USAUniv Leeds, Inst Integrat & Comparat Biol, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England
Hsu, Wayne W.
Derhe, Mia A.
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Univ E Anglia, Sch Biol Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, EnglandUniv Leeds, Inst Integrat & Comparat Biol, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England
Derhe, Mia A.
Hamer, Keith C.
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Univ Leeds, Inst Integrat & Comparat Biol, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, EnglandUniv Leeds, Inst Integrat & Comparat Biol, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England
Hamer, Keith C.
Wilcove, David S.
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Princeton Univ, Woodrow Wilson Sch, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA
Princeton Univ, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Princeton, NJ 08544 USAUniv Leeds, Inst Integrat & Comparat Biol, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England
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USDA, Southern Res Stn, 3041 Cornwallis Rd, Res Triangle Pk, NC 27709 USAPeking Univ, Sinofrench Inst Earth Syst Sci, Coll Urban & Environm Sci, Lab Earth Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China
Guo, Qinfeng
Chen, Anping
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Colorado State Univ, Dept Biol, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA
Colorado State Univ, Grad Degree Program Ecol, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USAPeking Univ, Sinofrench Inst Earth Syst Sci, Coll Urban & Environm Sci, Lab Earth Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China
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Yayasan Hutan Biru Blue Forests, Makassar 90231, Sulawesi, Indonesia
Charles Darwin Univ, Res Inst Environm & Livelihoods, Darwin, NT 0909, AustraliaNatl Univ Singapore, Dept Geog, 1 Arts Link, Singapore 117570, Singapore
Brown, Ben
Amir, A. Aldrie
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Univ Kebangsaan Malaysia, Inst Environm & Dev LESTARI, Ukm Bangi 43600, Selangor Darul, MalaysiaNatl Univ Singapore, Dept Geog, 1 Arts Link, Singapore 117570, Singapore
Amir, A. Aldrie
Cameron, Clint
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Charles Darwin Univ, Res Inst Environm & Livelihoods, Darwin, NT 0909, AustraliaNatl Univ Singapore, Dept Geog, 1 Arts Link, Singapore 117570, Singapore
Cameron, Clint
Koldewey, Heather J.
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Zool Soc London, Regents Pk, London NW1 4RY, EnglandNatl Univ Singapore, Dept Geog, 1 Arts Link, Singapore 117570, Singapore
Koldewey, Heather J.
Sasmito, Sigit D.
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Ctr Int Forestry Res CIFOR, Bogor 16115, IndonesiaNatl Univ Singapore, Dept Geog, 1 Arts Link, Singapore 117570, Singapore
Sasmito, Sigit D.
Sidik, Frida
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Minist Fisheries & Marine Affairs, Inst Marine Res & Observat, Jalan Baru Perancak, Negara Jembrana 82251, Bali, IndonesiaNatl Univ Singapore, Dept Geog, 1 Arts Link, Singapore 117570, Singapore