Prediction of patient-specific quality assurance for volumetric modulated arc therapy using radiomics-based machine learning with dose distribution

Purpose We sought to develop machine learning models to predict the results of patient-specific quality assurance (QA) for volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT), which were represented by several dose-evaluation metrics-including the gamma passing rates (GPRs)-and criteria based on the radiomic features of 3D dose distribution in a phantom.Methods A total of 4,250 radiomic features of 3D dose distribution in a cylindrical dummy phantom for 140 arcs from 106 clinical VMAT plans were extracted. We obtained the following dose-evaluation metrics: GPRs with global and local normalization, the dose difference (DD) in 1% and 2% passing rates (DD1% and DD2%) for 10% and 50% dose threshold, and the distance-to-agreement in 1-mm and 2-mm passing rates (DTA1 mm and DTA2 mm) for 0.5%/mm and 1.0%.mm dose gradient threshold determined by measurement using a diode array in patient-specific QA. The machine learning regression models for predicting the values of the dose-evaluation metrics using the radiomic features were developed based on the elastic net (EN) and extra trees (ET) models. The feature selection and tuning of hyperparameters were performed with nested cross-validation in which four-fold cross-validation is used within the inner loop, and the performance of each model was evaluated in terms of the root mean square error (RMSE), the mean absolute error (MAE), and Spearman's rank correlation coefficient.Results The RMSE and MAE for the developed machine learning models ranged from <1% to nearly <10% depending on the dose-evaluation metric, the criteria, and dose and dose gradient thresholds used for both machine learning models. It was advantageous to focus on high dose region for predicating global GPR, DDs, and DTAs. For certain metrics and criteria, it was possible to create models applicable for patients' heterogeneity by training only with dose distributions in phantom.Conclusions The developed machine learning models showed high performance for predicting dose-evaluation metrics especially for high dose region depending on the metric and criteria. Our results demonstrate that the radiomic features of dose distribution can be considered good indicators of the plan complexity and useful in predicting measured dose evaluation metrics.