Threshold dynamics of a stochastic SIQR epidemic model with imperfect quarantine

In this paper, we study a stochastic SIQR epidemic model with imperfect quarantine. We perform a detailed mathematical analysis of the dynamics of the stochastic model. The basic reproduction number Rs0 turns out to be a sharp threshold, that is, if Rs0 < 1, then the disease-free equilibrium of the stochastic model is globally stable almost surely, whereas if Rs0 > 1, the Markov process is positive recurrence which indicates that the disease will prevail. We also adopt the data of weekly infected cases for northern China from the first week of 2014 to the 26th week of 2014, to fit the model and estimate the parameters.(c) 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.