Research on Regional Carbon Emission Reduction in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration Based on System Dynamics: Key Factors and Policy Analysis

Urban agglomerations are regions where the economy and population are highly concentrated, which are also spatial units with more concentrated carbon emissions. A detailed decomposition of driving factors based on changes in carbon emissions of urban agglomerations can provide a reference for better carbon reduction policies. In this paper, we establish an evaluation framework of carbon emission drivers of urban agglomeration from the perspective of CO2 generation and removal using a system dynamics method. The key influencing factors and optimal emission reduction measures of carbon emissions in urban agglomerations are explored. The results are as follows: (1) The industrial structure is the key influencing factor of carbon emissions; (2) compared with no implementation of any policies, the total carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity of integrated policies all significantly decrease, with a decrease of 43.68% and 53.32%, respectively in 2035; (3) energy structure adjustment has a significant effect in reducing carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity; (4) the role of increasing investment in technological innovation in ensuring achievement of "carbon peak" should not be ignored. It is found that integrated policies often exhibit a better emission reduction effect, but this effect is not a simple summation of the effects of each single policy.