Estimation of Return Levels with Long Return Periods for Extreme Sea Levels by the Average Conditional Exceedance Rate Method
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作者:
Ryden, Jesper
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Swedish Univ Agr Sci, Dept Energy & Technol, Unit Appl Stat & Math, Box 7032, S-75007 Uppsala, SwedenSwedish Univ Agr Sci, Dept Energy & Technol, Unit Appl Stat & Math, Box 7032, S-75007 Uppsala, Sweden
Ryden, Jesper
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机构:
[1] Swedish Univ Agr Sci, Dept Energy & Technol, Unit Appl Stat & Math, Box 7032, S-75007 Uppsala, Sweden
Estimation of so-called return levels for environmental extremes is of importance for risk assessment. A particular challenge is to find estimates corresponding to long return periods, as uncertainties in the form of confidence intervals became too wide for practical use when applying conventional methodology where large portions of data are not used. A recently proposed technique, the Average Conditional Exceedance Rate (ACER), makes effective use of all available data. For risk analysis related to nuclear infrastructure, usually located along a coastline, extreme sea levels are of concern. We demonstrate, for measurements of the sea level along the Swedish coast at locations close to nuclear power plants, that the methodology results in considerably shorter confidence intervals compared to conventional approaches.
机构:
INRIA Rhone Alpes, Team Mistis, F-38334 Montbonnot St Martin, Saint Ismier, France
Lab Jean Kuntzmann, F-38334 Montbonnot St Martin, Saint Ismier, FranceINRIA Rhone Alpes, Team Mistis, F-38334 Montbonnot St Martin, Saint Ismier, France
Gardes, Laurent
Girard, Stephane
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INRIA Rhone Alpes, Team Mistis, F-38334 Montbonnot St Martin, Saint Ismier, France
Lab Jean Kuntzmann, F-38334 Montbonnot St Martin, Saint Ismier, FranceINRIA Rhone Alpes, Team Mistis, F-38334 Montbonnot St Martin, Saint Ismier, France
机构:
Univ Douala, Fac Sci, Lab Fundamental Phys, POB 24157, Douala, Cameroon
Univ Yaounde I, Fac Sci, Dept Phys, POB 812, Yaounde, CameroonUniv Douala, Fac Sci, Lab Fundamental Phys, POB 24157, Douala, Cameroon
Chamani, Romeo
Monkam, David
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Univ Douala, Fac Sci, Lab Fundamental Phys, POB 24157, Douala, Cameroon
Univ Douala, Fac Sci, Dept Phys, POB 24157, Douala, CameroonUniv Douala, Fac Sci, Lab Fundamental Phys, POB 24157, Douala, Cameroon
Monkam, David
Djomou, Zephirin Yepdo
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Natl Inst Cartog, POB 157, Drg Yaounde, CameroonUniv Douala, Fac Sci, Lab Fundamental Phys, POB 24157, Douala, Cameroon
机构:
National Climate Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, ChinaNational Climate Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
Kong, Lisha
Zhang, Xiuzhi
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National Climate Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, ChinaNational Climate Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
Zhang, Xiuzhi
Wu, Huanping
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National Climate Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, ChinaNational Climate Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
Wu, Huanping
Li, Yu
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National Climate Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, ChinaNational Climate Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China