A machine learning model to predict therapeutic inertia in type 2 diabetes using electronic health record data

Objective To estimate the therapeutic inertia prevalence for patients with type 2 diabetes, develop and validate a machine learning model predicting therapeutic inertia, and determine the added predictive value of area-level social determinants of health (SDOH).Methods This prognostic study with a retrospective cohort design used OneFlorida data (linked electronic health records (EHRs) from 1240 practices/clinics in Florida). The study cohort included adults (aged >= 18) with type 2 diabetes, HbA1C >= 7% (53 mmol/mol), >= one ambulatory visit, and >= one antihyperglycemic medication prescribed (excluded patients prescribed insulin before HbA1C). The outcome was therapeutic inertia, defined as absence of treatment intensification within six months after HbA1C >= 7% (53 mmol/mol). The predictors were patient, provider, and healthcare system factors. Machine learning methods included gradient boosting machines (GBM), random forests (RF), elastic net (EN), and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO). The DeLong test compared the discriminative ability (represented by C-statistics) between models.Results The cohort included 31,087 patients with type 2 diabetes (mean age = 58.89 (SD = 13.27) years, 50.50% male, 58.89% White). The therapeutic inertia prevalence was 39.80% among the 68,445 records. GBM outperformed (C-statistic from testing sample = 0.84, 95% CI = 0.83-0.84) RF (C-statistic = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.79-0.80), EN (C-statistic = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.80-0.81), and LASSO (C-statistic = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.80-0.81), p < 0.05. Area-level SDOH significantly increased the discriminative ability versus models without SDOH (C-statistic for GBM = 0.84, 95% CI = 0.84-0.85 vs. 0.84, 95% CI = 0.83-0.84), p < 0.05.Conclusions Using EHRs of patients with type 2 diabetes from a large state, machine learning predicted therapeutic inertia (prevalence = 40%). The model's ability to predict patients at high risk of therapeutic inertia is clinically applicable to diabetes care.