Breakthrough potential of emerging research topics based on citation diffusion features

被引：3

作者：

Xu, Haiyun ^{[1
]}

Winnink, Jos ^{[2
]}

Pang, Hongshen ^{[3
]}

Wen, Shuhao ^{[4
]}

Chen, Liang ^{[5
]}

机构：

[1] Shandong Univ Technol, Business Sch, Zibo 255000, Peoples R China

[2] Leiden Univ, Ctr Sci & Technol Studies CWTS, Leiden, Netherlands

[3] Shenzhen Univ Lib, Shenzhen, Peoples R China

[4] Sichuan Univ, Sch Publ Adm, Chengdu, Peoples R China

[5] Inst Sci & Tech Informat China ISTIC, Beijing, Peoples R China

来源：

JOURNAL OF INFORMATION SCIENCE | 2023年 / 49卷 / 05期

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金; 中国国家社会科学基金;

关键词：

Breakthrough innovation; breakthrough potential; citation curve; citation diffusion; knowledge base; MULTIDIMENSIONAL SCIENTOMETRIC INDICATORS; DELAYED RECOGNITION; SLEEPING BEAUTIES; RESEARCH FIELDS; SCIENTIFIC BREAKTHROUGHS; DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY; SCIENCE; KNOWLEDGE; IDENTIFY; IDENTIFICATION;

D O I：

10.1177/01655515211061219

中图分类号：

TP [自动化技术、计算机技术];

学科分类号：

0812 ;

摘要：

This article uses the characteristics of citation curves in emerging research topics (ERTs) and combines them with the ERTs' knowledge bases to draw conclusions by comparing their development patterns. The goal of this study is to enrich the toolset for predicting breakthroughs in scientific research. A set of multidimensional and practical bibliometric indicators is used to identify ERTs, to further identify the knowledge bases of ERTs and construct citation curves for both ERTs and their knowledge bases. The development trends of the citation curves of ERTs and their knowledge bases in different time periods are compared and analysed from two dimensions: knowledge transition and continuous growth. We use the field of stem cell research to test our method. Based on the outcome of the analysis, we can assess the breakthrough potential of ERTs. The stratification, transition and recent changes of the citation curve can be used as a basis for analysing and assessing the ERTs' breakthrough potential. The combination of different citation diffusion patterns of ERTs and their knowledge bases can improve the effectiveness of identifying ERTs that can become breakthrough innovations.

引用

页码：1390 / 1416

页数：27

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