Examining the change in groundwater flow patterns: A case study from the plain area of the Baiyangdian Lake Watershed, North China

Examining the evolution of groundwater flow patterns is critical to understanding the hydrological cycle and plays an important role in the sustainable management of water resources and ecosystems. In this study, the plain area of the Baiyangdian Lake Watershed (PBW) was chosen as a typical area for severe water scarcity and ecological crisis in the North China Plain. We investigated the temporal and spatial variability in groundwater flow patterns from a holistic view of the water cycle in the PBW and explored more sustainable water resources management using multiple methods, including field surveys, historical data review, statistical analysis, and numerical groundwater modelling. The results show that the groundwater storage decreased by 494 x 108 m3 across the PBW from 1965 to 2019, while the groundwater level presented a decreasing trend for most of the period, which resulted in changes of Baiyangdian Lake and groundwater interactions. Human factors, such as groundwater extraction and water transfer projects, significantly influenced the evolution of groundwater flow patterns by generating a greater contribution of human factors to groundwater balance (54.23%) than that of climate change (45.77%). The hydrodynamic simulations imply that the interaction between groundwater and Baiyangdian Lake was dominated by groundwater recharging the river under natural conditions, and the influence depth of the interaction zone was within about 80 m underground; however, under anthropogenic disturbance, their interaction was altered to the lake recharging groundwater, with a maximum influence depth up to 135 m. Furthermore, considering the systematicity and zoning of the water cycle, we proposed a combination of different strategies, including restricted groundwater exploitation, increased water diversion and water use efficiency, and managed aquifer recharge, which could restore groundwater levels and groundwater storage over a 20-year period to realize sustainable groundwater development. This study highlights the spatiotemporal groundwater flow patterns in a changing environment and the associated hydrogeological processes and provides insights towards the development of more effective water management strategies.