Study on the estimation of groundwater withdrawals based on groundwater flow modeling and its application in the North China Plain

The amount of water withdrawn by wells is one of the quantitative variables that can be applied to estimate groundwater resources and further evaluate the human influence on groundwater systems. The accuracy for the calculation of the amount of water withdrawal significantly influences the regional groundwater resource evaluation and management. However, the decentralized groundwater pumping, inefficient management, measurement errors and uncertainties have resulted in considerable errors in the groundwater withdrawal estimation. In this study, to improve the estimation of the groundwater withdrawal, an innovative approach was proposed using an inversion method based on a regional groundwater flow numerical model, and this method was then applied in the North China Plain. The principle of the method was matching the simulated water levels with the observation ones by adjusting the amount of groundwater withdrawal. In addition, uncertainty analysis of hydraulic conductivity and specific yield for the estimation of the groundwater withdrawal was conducted. By using the proposed inversion method, the estimated annual average groundwater withdrawal was approximately 24.92×109 m3 in the North China Plain from 2002 to 2008. The inversion method also significantly improved the simulation results for both hydrograph and the flow field. Results of the uncertainty analysis showed that the hydraulic conductivity was more sensitive to the inversion results than the specific yield.