Comparative Analysis of Aviation Occurrence Patterns among Three Northeast Asian Countries: South Korea, China and Japan

This study investigates the commonalities and differences in aviation occurrences among three Northeast Asian countries-South Korea, China and Japan, using the ICAO's Integrated Safety Trend Analysis and Reporting System (iSTARS) dataset. Logistic regression and latent class analysis are employed to identify factors influencing the likelihood of fatalities and to classify occurrences into distinct groups. The findings indicate that operational issues in airspace pose greater risks than runway-related issues in this region. The ground and landing flight phases have lower fatality likelihoods compared to the cruise phase, and winter seasons show reduced odds of fatalities. Latent class analysis identifies five distinct occurrence classes, highlighting specific risks and areas for targeted interventions. Technical and environmental issues are prominent in Japan, while operational issues during the cruise and maneuvering phases are significant in South Korea, associated with a high fatality rate. Light recreational general aviation flights pose a considerable risk of fatalities in China and Japan. The findings of this study highlight the need for comprehensive research to explore the causes and contributing factors of aviation occurrences in different countries to enhance safety practices and mitigate fatality risks.