Assessment the Impacts of Sea-Level Changes on Mangroves of Ceara-Mirim Estuary, Northeastern Brazil, during the Holocene and Anthropocene

Predictions of the effects of modern Relative Sea-Level (RSL) rise on mangroves should be based on decadal-millennial mangrove dynamics and the particularities of each depositional environment under past RSL changes. This work identified inland and seaward mangrove migrations along the Ceara-Mirim estuary (Rio Grande do Norte, northeastern Brazil) during the mid-late Holocene and Anthropocene based on sedimentary features, palynological, and geochemical (delta C-13, delta N-15, C/N) data integrated with spatial-temporal analysis based on satellite images. The data indicated three phases for the mangrove development: (1 degrees) mangrove expansion on tidal flats with estuarine organic matter between >4420 and similar to 2870 cal yrs BP, under the influence of the mid-Holocene sea-level highstand; (2 degrees) mangrove contraction with an increased contribution of C-3 terrestrial plants between similar to 2870 and similar to 84 cal yrs BP due to an RSL fall, and (3 degrees) mangrove expansion onto the highest tidal flats since similar to 84 cal yr BP due to a relative sea-level rise. However, significant mangrove areas were converted to fish farming before 1984 CE. Spatial-temporal analysis also indicated a mangrove expansion since 1984 CE due to mangrove recolonization of shrimp farming areas previously deforested for pisciculture. This work mainly evidenced a trend of mangrove expansion due to RSL rise preceding the effects of anthropogenic emissions of CO2 in the atmosphere and the resilience of these forests in the face of anthropogenic interventions.