Land cover change assessment using random forest and CA markov from remote sensing images in the protected forest of South Malang, Indonesia

Protected forest has important roles in protecting life support systems through water manage-ment, maintain micro climate stability, flood prevention, erosion control, prevention of seawater intrusion and maintenance of soil fertility. Deforestation in protected forest areas will reduce the roles, however, deforestation appeared to occur in forested areas of Bantur Regency. Infrastruc-ture development which is growing rapidly and the compleexity of economic activities is driving deforestation in this region. The deforestation caused water supply problems, landslide and de-creased endemic bird population ("rangkong") in study areas. Therefore it is necessary to identify deforestation through land cover change assessment. This study aims at (1) quantifying the forest land cover changes in protected forest areas of Bantur and Donomulyo Regency, (2) identifying environmental condition in protected forest areas of Bantur and Donomulyo Regency. Landsat TM, ETM+ and 8 were used together with Random Forest classification for mapping the forest areas. Carbon Monoxide (CO) and temperature were used as biophysical factors in the model. The results of this study suggested the continuing deforestation with the existence of roads, economic activity, and tourism development triggered the deforestation pattern. Role of community was also found to affect the nature of deforestation.