Predicting final ischemic stroke lesions from initial diffusion-weighted images using a deep neural network

Background: For prognosis of stroke, measurement of the diffusion-perfusion mismatch is a common practice for estimating tissue at risk of infarction in the absence of timely reperfusion. However, perfusion-weighted imaging (PWI) adds time and expense to the acute stroke imaging workup. We explored whether a deep convolutional neural network (DCNN) model trained with diffusion-weighted imaging obtained at admission could predict final infarct volume and location in acute stroke patients.Methods: In 445 patients, we trained and validated an attention-gated (AG) DCNN to predict final infarcts as delineated on follow-up studies obtained 3 to 7 days after stroke. The input channels consisted of MR diffusionweighted imaging (DWI), apparent diffusion coefficients (ADC) maps, and thresholded ADC maps with values less than 620 x 10-6 mm2/s, while the output was a voxel-by-voxel probability map of tissue infarction. We evaluated performance of the model using the area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve (AUC), the Dice similarity coefficient (DSC), absolute lesion volume error, and the concordance correlation coefficient (rho c) of the predicted and true infarct volumes.Results: The model obtained a median AUC of 0.91 (IQR: 0.84-0.96). After thresholding at an infarction probability of 0.5, the median sensitivity and specificity were 0.60 (IQR: 0.16-0.84) and 0.97 (IQR: 0.93-0.99), respectively, while the median DSC and absolute volume error were 0.50 (IQR: 0.17-0.66) and 27 ml (IQR: 7-60 ml), respectively. The model's predicted lesion volumes showed high correlation with ground truth volumes (rho c = 0.73, p < 0.01). Conclusion: An AG-DCNN using diffusion information alone upon admission was able to predict infarct volumes at 3-7 days after stroke onset with comparable accuracy to models that consider both DWI and PWI. This may enable treatment decisions to be made with shorter stroke imaging protocols.