Climate change and landslide hazard in stiff clays and clay shales

Recently the effects of climate change on the atmospheric patterns are becoming more and more evident. Quantifying the potential impact on communities and assets is thus becoming a priority. Certainly, a major issue to consider is the risk of landslide, a challenging and still unsolved topic. The slope response to the effects of climate change is in fact affected by the concurrent role of a variety of weather- and soil-related factors that strongly affect any problem solution. The aim of the paper is to focus on the potential consequences of changing rainfall and evapotranspiration regimes on landslide hazard in stiff clays and clay shales, a major problem all along the Italian Apennines chain where slope movements are a typical feature of the landscape. It is shown that the combined influence of climate trends and soil fabric, which has a strong influence on permeability, can significantly influence the mechanical response of quiescent and active landslide bodies to rainfall, leading to even mismatched effects.