Projections of climate change on the behaviour of clays in the UK

The impact of expected climate change on clay cuttings and embankments used for roads and railways is not well understood. Volume sensitive clays respond to seasonal variations in climate through vertical and horizontal displacements. These cause a variety of impacts at differing temporal and spatial scales, for example short term changes such as seasonal displacement of railway tracks or long term progressive failure of the slope. Daily changes in soil moisture content in the surface layers of a clay slope are simulated using a water balance model and expressed as soil moisture deficit and potential for surface runoff. Model results are validated against a 10 year run of field data in the UK. The impacts of anticipated climate change on soil water contents and equivalent pore water pressures are evaluated using stochastic climatic data over the 21st century based on the UK Climate Impacts Programme. Results indicate that recent summers considered to be exceptionally dry are likely to become the average condition later in the 21st century. Although winter rainfall is predicted to increase, average winter runoff will remain the same, although extreme wet events are still likely to occur. The implications for the design and maintenance of clay slopes and embankments are discussed.