The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on renewable energy trade in countries along the belt and road: A cascading failure model

As pivotal energy suppliers, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has had a profound impact on the trade of renewable energy products among countries participating in the belt and road initiative (BRI). However, the precise mechanisms by which this conflict influences and the overall stability of the trading system remain underexplored. This study applies multi-layer network modeling and cascade failure theory to examine both intra-layer and inter-layer structural dynamics, as well as the propagation of risks, in the trade of solar, wind, biomass, and hydro energy products across 66 BRI countries from 2013 to 2021. The results provide several key insights. First, the trade networks for wind, biomass, and hydro energy products exhibit distinct community structures. Notably, the hydro energy trade network displays a "rich club" phenomenon, characterized by a continual increase in the size of its largest community. In contrast, the biomass network has experienced a trend of community fragmentation. Second, due to its high trade volume, the solar energy network shares considerable similarity with the other three subnetworks, although this similarity has been diminishing over time. Moreover, the solar energy network is the least robust among all the networks analyzed. Third, the disruption risks stemming from the Russia-Ukraine conflict have the most significant impact on the biomass network, followed by the wind and hydro networks, while the solar network is the least affected. When Russia and Ukraine are excluded from the analysis, the biomass network exhibits the highest level of robustness. Finally, the paper concludes by summarizing the empirical findings and offering policy recommendations aimed at enhancing resilience in renewable energy trade within the BRI framework.