A measure of the bullwhip effect in supply chains with stochastic lead time

被引：32

作者：

Duc, Truong Ton Hien ^{[1
]}

Luong, Huynh Trung ^{[2
]}

Kim, Yeong-Dae ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Korea Adv Inst Sci & Technol, Dept Ind Engn, Taejon 305701, South Korea

[2] Asian Inst Technol, Sch Engn & Technol, Ind Syst Engn Program, Klongluang 12120, Pathumthani, Thailand

来源：

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ADVANCED MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGY | 2008年 / 38卷 / 11-12期

关键词：

supply chain; bullwhip effect; autoregressive model; mixed autoregressive-moving average model; base stock policy; stochastic lead time;

D O I：

10.1007/s00170-007-1170-1

中图分类号：

TP [自动化技术、计算机技术];

学科分类号：

0812 ;

摘要：

In this paper, we exactly quantify the bullwhip effect, the variance amplification in replenishment orders, for cases of stochastic demand and stochastic lead time in a simple two-stage supply chain with one supplier and one retailer. In most of the previous research, the impact of order lead time on the bullwhip effect in supply chains with pre-specified demand processes is investigated mostly for cases of deterministic lead time. In this paper, we deal with a first-order autoregressive, AR(1), demand process and investigate the behavior of a measure for the bullwhip effect with respect to autoregressive coefficient and stochastic order lead time. Extension to a mixed first-order autoregressive-moving average, ARMA(1,1), demand process is also considered.

引用

页码：1201 / 1212

页数：12

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