Health benefits of phasing out coal-fired power plants in Ontario, Alberta, and Canada

Coal-fired power plants (CFPPs) in Ontario were decommissioned in a phased approach from 2003 to 2014. After Ontario's commitment to eliminate coal-based electricity generation, Alberta and Canada have planned on phasing out coal in the electricity sector. The coal regulation in Canada targets coal-free electricity generation by 2030, accelerating the criteria air pollutant emission reductions in the CFPPs nationwide. The Regulatory Impact Analysis Statement (RIAS) under the coal regulation estimated substantial health benefits based on scenario analysis. Here we use adjoint sensitivity analysis as an alternative approach to estimate the health impacts of CFPPs and non-coal electric generating units (EGUs). The adjoint of the U.S. EPA's Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is used to attribute PM2.5-related 2.5-related health impacts for primary and precursor PM 2.5 emissions emitted from the CFPPs and non-coal EGUs in Canada using various epidemiological studies. Our findings suggest that the reduction of CFPP emissions yields more total benefits rather than other fuel types in EGUs. A significant amount of total health burden is estimated to occur within the province that hosts the facility, and with a larger portion of this benefit coming in warmer seasons. Our retrospective analysis of Ontario coal phase-out estimates $1B CAD total annual health benefits in 2003, or projected 2014 benefits of $1.8 B CAD. The transboundary impact of emission reductions from coal-fired power plants in the U.S. entails significant health benefits to Ontario and Canada, more than twice that of Ontario's own coal phase-out. Nationwide, total health burden estimate for CFPPs and non-coal EGUs is $418M CAD in 2014. The choice of epidemiological model has a sizeable impact on estimated burdens or benefits.