Drivers and strategic options for renewable energy development in China: LMDI-elasticity analysis perspective based on photovoltaic and wind energy

This study examines the drivers and development strategies of PV and wind energy development in China based on the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) model and the elasticity analysis model. The study revealed a significant increase in the value added of photovoltaic (PV) and wind power generation in China, with growth rates of 400.54 % and 102.27 %, respectively, from the 12th Five-Year Plan to the 13th Five-Year Plan. The primary driver of PV power generation in each region is the substitution effect between PV power and traditional energy sources. The key drivers of China's wind power generation are the substitution factor and economic considerations between wind power and traditional energy sources, demonstrating that China's wind power generation is influenced by both production and consumption factors. Model predictions indicate an upward trend in PV and wind power generation across all provinces in China. Western China continues to be the primary region for future PV power generation, while wind power generation in certain regions may experience a decline. The strategic analysis results suggest that a capital-led strategy continues to be the preferred approach for the future advancement of PV power generation in Chinese provinces, while the development of wind energy should be tailored to specific circumstances.