Mathematical models and analysis tools for risk assessment of unnatural epidemics: a scoping review

被引:0
|
作者
Li, Ji [1 ]
Li, Yue [2 ]
Mei, Zihan [1 ]
Liu, Zhengkun [1 ]
Zou, Gaofeng [2 ]
Cao, Chunxia [1 ]
机构
[1] Tianjin Univ, Inst Disaster & Emergency Med, Tianjin, Peoples R China
[2] Tianjin Univ, Coll Management & Econ, Tianjin, Peoples R China
基金
国家重点研发计划;
关键词
unnatural epidemics; mathematical models; risk assessment; machine learning; analysis tools; SYNDROMIC SURVEILLANCE; PUBLIC-HEALTH; OUTBREAK-DETECTION; DIFFERENTIATION METHOD; AIRBORNE PATHOGENS; BIOLOGICAL WARFARE; INFECTIOUS-DISEASE; BIOTERRORISM; SYSTEM; TIME;
D O I
10.3389/fpubh.2024.1381328
中图分类号
R1 [预防医学、卫生学];
学科分类号
1004 ; 120402 ;
摘要
Predicting, issuing early warnings, and assessing risks associated with unnatural epidemics (UEs) present significant challenges. These tasks also represent key areas of focus within the field of prevention and control research for UEs. A scoping review was conducted using databases such as PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, and Embase, from inception to 31 December 2023. Sixty-six studies met the inclusion criteria. Two types of models (data-driven and mechanistic-based models) and a class of analysis tools for risk assessment of UEs were identified. The validation part of models involved calibration, improvement, and comparison. Three surveillance systems (event-based, indicator-based, and hybrid) were reported for monitoring UEs. In the current study, mathematical models and analysis tools suggest a distinction between natural epidemics and UEs in selecting model parameters and warning thresholds. Future research should consider combining a mechanistic-based model with a data-driven model and learning to pursue time-varying, high-precision risk assessment capabilities.
引用
收藏
页数:13
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [21] Oral Health Assessment Tools for Elderly Adults: A Scoping Review
    Yang, Heng
    Xiao, Jiechenming
    Cui, Shaomei
    Zhang, Liyan
    Chen, Lixia
    JOURNAL OF MULTIDISCIPLINARY HEALTHCARE, 2023, 16 : 4181 - 4192
  • [22] Hospital climate actions and assessment tools: a scoping review protocol
    Gan, Connie Cai Ru
    Banwell, Nicola
    San Pascual, Ramon
    Chu, Cordia
    Wang, Ying Wei
    BMJ OPEN, 2019, 9 (12):
  • [23] Spatial Neglect Subtypes, Definitions and Assessment Tools: A Scoping Review
    Williams, Lindy J.
    Kernot, Jocelyn
    Hillier, Susan L.
    Loetscher, Tobias
    FRONTIERS IN NEUROLOGY, 2021, 12
  • [24] Characteristics of constipation screening and assessment tools: a scoping review protocol
    Odgaard, Lene
    Rasmussen, Anne A.
    Feo, Rebecca
    Kristensen, Pia Kjaer
    BMJ OPEN, 2024, 14 (03):
  • [25] Global mapping of epidemic risk assessment toolkits: A scoping review for COVID-19 and future epidemics preparedness implications
    Tran, Bach Xuan
    Nguyen, Long Hoang
    Doan, Linh Phuong
    Nguyen, Tham Thi
    Vu, Giang Thu
    Do, Hoa Thi
    Le, Huong Thi
    Latkin, Carl A.
    Ho, Cyrus S. H.
    Ho, Roger C. M.
    PLOS ONE, 2022, 17 (09):
  • [26] Perinatal Incontinence Assessment Tools: A Psychometric Evaluation and Scoping Review
    Gard, Emily
    Lyman, Alyssa
    Garg, Hina
    JOURNAL OF WOMENS HEALTH, 2022, 31 (08) : 1208 - 1218
  • [27] IMPACT OF TARGETED INTERVENTIONS IN HIV EPIDEMICS AS PREDICTED BY MATHEMATICAL MODELS: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW
    Mishra, S.
    Boily, M. C.
    Steen, R.
    Lo, Y. R.
    Gerbase, A.
    SEXUALLY TRANSMITTED INFECTIONS, 2011, 87 : A35 - A35
  • [28] Fatigue measures and risk assessment tools for first responder fatigue risk management: A scoping review with considerations of the multidimensionality of fatigue
    Yung, Marcus
    Du, Bronson
    Gruber, Jennifer
    Hackney, Amy
    Yazdani, Amin
    SAFETY SCIENCE, 2022, 154
  • [29] Accessible methods and tools to estimate chemical exposure in humans to support risk assessment: A systematic scoping review
    Kalyva, Maria E.
    Vist, Gunn E.
    Diemar, Michael Guy
    Lopez-Soop, Graciela
    Bozada, T. J.
    Luechtefeld, Thomas
    Roggen, Erwin L.
    Dirven, Hubert
    Vinken, Mathieu
    Husoy, Trine
    ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION, 2024, 352
  • [30] The evidence base for risk assessment tools used in US child protection investigations: A systematic scoping review
    McNellan, Claire R.
    Gibbs, Daniel J.
    Knobel, Ann S.
    -Hornstein, Emily Putnam
    CHILD ABUSE & NEGLECT, 2022, 134