Mathematical models and analysis tools for risk assessment of unnatural epidemics: a scoping review

被引:0
|
作者
Li, Ji [1 ]
Li, Yue [2 ]
Mei, Zihan [1 ]
Liu, Zhengkun [1 ]
Zou, Gaofeng [2 ]
Cao, Chunxia [1 ]
机构
[1] Tianjin Univ, Inst Disaster & Emergency Med, Tianjin, Peoples R China
[2] Tianjin Univ, Coll Management & Econ, Tianjin, Peoples R China
基金
国家重点研发计划;
关键词
unnatural epidemics; mathematical models; risk assessment; machine learning; analysis tools; SYNDROMIC SURVEILLANCE; PUBLIC-HEALTH; OUTBREAK-DETECTION; DIFFERENTIATION METHOD; AIRBORNE PATHOGENS; BIOLOGICAL WARFARE; INFECTIOUS-DISEASE; BIOTERRORISM; SYSTEM; TIME;
D O I
10.3389/fpubh.2024.1381328
中图分类号
R1 [预防医学、卫生学];
学科分类号
1004 ; 120402 ;
摘要
Predicting, issuing early warnings, and assessing risks associated with unnatural epidemics (UEs) present significant challenges. These tasks also represent key areas of focus within the field of prevention and control research for UEs. A scoping review was conducted using databases such as PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, and Embase, from inception to 31 December 2023. Sixty-six studies met the inclusion criteria. Two types of models (data-driven and mechanistic-based models) and a class of analysis tools for risk assessment of UEs were identified. The validation part of models involved calibration, improvement, and comparison. Three surveillance systems (event-based, indicator-based, and hybrid) were reported for monitoring UEs. In the current study, mathematical models and analysis tools suggest a distinction between natural epidemics and UEs in selecting model parameters and warning thresholds. Future research should consider combining a mechanistic-based model with a data-driven model and learning to pursue time-varying, high-precision risk assessment capabilities.
引用
收藏
页数:13
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [11] Mathematical models of Plasmodium vivax transmission: A scoping review
    Anwar, Md Nurul
    Smith, Lauren
    Devine, Angela
    Mehra, Somya
    Walker, Camelia R.
    Ivory, Elizabeth
    Conway, Eamon
    Mueller, Ivo
    Mccaw, James M.
    Flegg, Jennifer A.
    Hickson, Roslyn I.
    PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY, 2024, 20 (03)
  • [12] Review article: Identifying occupational violence patient risk factors and risk assessment tools in the emergency department: A scoping review
    Cabilan, C. J.
    Johnston, Amy N. B.
    EMERGENCY MEDICINE AUSTRALASIA, 2019, 31 (05) : 730 - 740
  • [13] Diagnostic Radiology Residency Assessment Tools: A Scoping Review
    Tu, Wendy
    Hibbert, Rebecca
    Kontolemos, Mario
    Dang, Wilfred
    Wood, Tim
    Verma, Raman
    McInnes, Matthew D. F.
    CANADIAN ASSOCIATION OF RADIOLOGISTS JOURNAL-JOURNAL DE L ASSOCIATION CANADIENNE DES RADIOLOGISTES, 2021, 72 (04): : 651 - 660
  • [14] Competency assessment tools for infection preventionists: A scoping review
    Felix, Adriana M. da Silva
    Pereira, Erica G.
    Padoveze, Maria Clara
    JOURNAL OF INFECTION PREVENTION, 2023, 24 (06) : 259 - 267
  • [15] Assessment tools for reflection in healthcare learners: A scoping review
    Prefontaine, Cassandra
    Gaboury, Isabelle
    Corriveau, Helene
    Beauchamp, Jacinthe
    Lemire, Chantal
    April, Marie-Josee
    MEDICAL TEACHER, 2022, 44 (04) : 394 - 400
  • [16] Delirium in psychiatric settings: risk factors and assessment tools in patients with psychiatric illness: a scoping review
    Huang, Cheng
    Wu, Bei
    Chen, Haiqin
    Tao, Hong
    Wei, Zhuqin
    Su, Liming
    Wang, Lina
    BMC NURSING, 2024, 23 (01):
  • [17] A systematic scoping review and content analysis of organizational health literacy responsiveness assessment tools
    Chu, Teresa Cheng-Chieh
    Kelly, Rebecca K.
    Hu, Yih-Jin
    Elmer, Shandell
    Nash, Rosie
    HEALTH PROMOTION INTERNATIONAL, 2024, 39 (03)
  • [18] Impact of High-Risk Sex and Focused Interventions in Heterosexual HIV Epidemics: A Systematic Review of Mathematical Models
    Mishra, Sharmistha
    Steen, Richard
    Gerbase, Antonio
    Lo, Ying-Ru
    Boily, Marie-Claude
    PLOS ONE, 2012, 7 (11):
  • [19] Cardiovascular Risk Prediction Models: A Scoping Review
    Sajeev, Shelda
    Maeder, Anthony
    PROCEEDINGS OF THE AUSTRALASIAN COMPUTER SCIENCE WEEK MULTICONFERENCE (ACSW 2019), 2019,
  • [20] Watershed Ecological Risk Assessment and Watershed Management : A Review of Methods, Tools and Models
    Lai Geying
    PROCEEDINGS OF THE 2ND INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON RISK MANAGEMENT & ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT, VOLS 1 AND 2, 2008, : 329 - 334