Future changes in precipitation and water availability over the Tibetan Plateau projected by CMIP6 models constrained by climate sensitivity

被引：0
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作者：
Hui Qiu [1 ,2 ]
Tianjun Zhou [1 ,2 ]
Liwei Zou [1 ]
Jie Jiang [1 ]
Xiaolong Chen [1 ]
Shuai Hu [1 ]
机构：
[1] State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
[2] University of the Chinese Academy of
来源：
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters | 2024年 / 17卷 / 05期
关键词：
青藏高原; 气候敏感度; 降水预估; 水资源可用性;
D O I：
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学科分类号：
摘要：
青藏高原是气候变化敏感区,可靠的气候预估对气候变化应对至关重要.青藏高原夏季降水变化的预估结果在CMIP6气候模式间存在较大的不确定性,原因部分地和这些模式对温室气体强迫的敏感度不同有关.作者在对CMIP6模式性能进行评估基础上,选择了具有较高气候态降水模拟技巧的模式用于预估研究,并根据IPCC AR6估算的平衡态气候敏感度（ECS）的可能性范围,对青藏高原夏季降水的中远期（2050–2099）变化进行约束.结果表明,在SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5和SSP5–8.5情景下,青藏高原夏季降水将分别增多0.24, 0.25和0.45 mm d-1 （5.9%,6.1%,和11.2%）,水资源可用性（P–E）将分别增加0.10, 0.09和0.22 mm d-1 （5.7%, 4.9%和13.2%）.与约束预估相比,高ECS模式预估的水文敏感度约为约束后的1.2–1.4倍,升温幅度偏高0.6°C–1.2°C,这二者共同导致高ECS模式预估的高原降水增幅约为约束预估的1.7倍.本文指出气候敏感度是影响未来青藏高原水资源预估不确定性的重要来源,同时基于IPCC AR6对ECS的最佳估算,给出了高原夏季降水和水资源的最佳预估结果.
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页码：42 / 48
页数：7
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