Future changes in precipitation and water availability over the Tibetan Plateau projected by CMIP6 models constrained by climate sensitivity

被引：0

作者：

Hui Qiu ^{[1
,2
]}

Tianjun Zhou ^{[1
,2
]}

Liwei Zou ^{[1
]}

Jie Jiang ^{[1
]}

Xiaolong Chen ^{[1
]}

Shuai Hu ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences

[2] University of the Chinese Academy of

来源：

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters | 2024年 / 17卷 / 05期

关键词：

青藏高原; 气候敏感度; 降水预估; 水资源可用性;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

青藏高原是气候变化敏感区,可靠的气候预估对气候变化应对至关重要.青藏高原夏季降水变化的预估结果在CMIP6气候模式间存在较大的不确定性,原因部分地和这些模式对温室气体强迫的敏感度不同有关.作者在对CMIP6模式性能进行评估基础上,选择了具有较高气候态降水模拟技巧的模式用于预估研究,并根据IPCC AR6估算的平衡态气候敏感度（ECS）的可能性范围,对青藏高原夏季降水的中远期（2050–2099）变化进行约束.结果表明,在SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5和SSP5–8.5情景下,青藏高原夏季降水将分别增多0.24, 0.25和0.45 mm d-1 （5.9%,6.1%,和11.2%）,水资源可用性（P–E）将分别增加0.10, 0.09和0.22 mm d-1 （5.7%, 4.9%和13.2%）.与约束预估相比,高ECS模式预估的水文敏感度约为约束后的1.2–1.4倍,升温幅度偏高0.6°C–1.2°C,这二者共同导致高ECS模式预估的高原降水增幅约为约束预估的1.7倍.本文指出气候敏感度是影响未来青藏高原水资源预估不确定性的重要来源,同时基于IPCC AR6对ECS的最佳估算,给出了高原夏季降水和水资源的最佳预估结果.

引用

下载

页码：42 / 48

页数：7

共 50 条

[21] Surface air temperature changes over the Tibetan Plateau: Historical evaluation and future projection based on CMIP6 models
Rui Chen
Haoying Li
Xuejia Wang
Xiaohua Gou
Meixue Yang
Guoning Wan
Geoscience Frontiers, 2022, 13 (06) : 143 - 157
[22] Evaluation and Correction of Climate Simulations for the Tibetan Plateau Using the CMIP6 Models
Gao, Jiajia
Du, Jun
Yang, Cheng
Deqing, Zhuoga
Ma, Pengfei
Zhuo, Ga
ATMOSPHERE, 2022, 13 (12)
[23] Future Changes in Global Atmospheric Rivers Projected by CMIP6 Models
Zhang, Lujia
Zhao, Yang
Cheng, Tat Fan
Lu, Mengqian
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2024, 129 (03)
[24] Changes in convective and stratiform precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau projected by global and regional climate models
Zhang, Hongwen
Gao, Yanhong
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2023, 43 (10) : 4442 - 4456
[25] Projected changes in rainfall over Uganda based on CMIP6 models
Ngoma, Hamida
Ayugi, Brian
Onyutha, Charles
Babaousmail, Hassen
Sian, Kenny T. C. Lim Kam
Iyakaremye, Vedaste
Mumo, Richard
Ongoma, Victor
THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY, 2022, 149 (3-4) : 1117 - 1134
[26] Projected changes in rainfall over Uganda based on CMIP6 models
Hamida Ngoma
Brian Ayugi
Charles Onyutha
Hassen Babaousmail
Kenny T. C. Lim Kam Sian
Vedaste Iyakaremye
Richard Mumo
Victor Ongoma
Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2022, 149 : 1117 - 1134
[27] Future Changes in Precipitation Extremes over East Africa Based on CMIP6 Models
Ayugi, Brian
Dike, Victor
Ngoma, Hamida
Babaousmail, Hassen
Mumo, Richard
Ongoma, Victor
WATER, 2021, 13 (17)
[28] Spatiotemporal Evaluation and Future Projection of Diurnal Temperature Range over the Tibetan Plateau in CMIP6 Models
Suguo ZHANG
Qin HU
Xianhong MENG
Yaqiong L
Xianyu YANG
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2024, 41 (11) : 2245 - 2258
[29] Spatiotemporal Evaluation and Future Projection of Diurnal Temperature Range over the Tibetan Plateau in CMIP6 Models
Zhang, Suguo
Hu, Qin
Meng, Xianhong
Lue, Yaqiong
Yang, Xianyu
ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 2024, : 2245 - 2258
[30] Projected changes in precipitation extremes in Southern Thailand using CMIP6 models
Kuinkel, Dipesh
Promchote, Parichart
Upreti, Khem R.
Wang, S. -Y. Simon
Dahal, Ngamindra
Pokharel, Binod
THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY, 2024, 155 (09) : 8703 - 8716

← 1 2 3 4 5 →