A provincial analysis of centralized heating systems decarbonization in China's residential sector: History and future

Decarbonization of China's residential Centralized heating (RCH) is crucial for China's carbon peak and neutrality. To tap the decarbonization potential, from the perspective of heating production and consumption, this study uses Log-Mean Divisia Index to investigate the historical decarbonization of RCH. Meanwhile, this study novelty develops a bottom-up RCH CO2 emission forecast model, which can quantify technique renovation by building stock dynamics. The results indicate that 1) During the period of 2005-2019, RCH achieved 800.66 MtCO2 of decarbonization, and the heating consumption ends had a larger contribution (85.68 %) than heating production end. 2) Under Business-as-usual scenario (BAU), RCH will reach 208.41 MtCO2 by 2060. Other scenarios can reduce CO2 emissions by 52.38 % to 100 % below BAU. 3) In the future, the heating production end will have a larger decarbonization potential, and the best decarbonization strategy is non-fossil energy utilization. In summary, this study offers insights into the decarbonization of provincial RCH and can benefit the formulation of a reasonable provincial decarbonization responsibility and decarbonization pathway.