COMPUTER-SIMULATION MODELING FOR STORED-GRAIN PEST-MANAGEMENT

Simulation models are used to solve various problems in stored-grain management. Temperature and moisture content of stored grain are simulated to evaluate the efficacy of ambient air ventilation and to estimate the maximum safe storage period of grain. Population dynamics and bioenergetics of stored-grain insects and mites are simulated to estimate the risk of pest outbreaks. Degradation of pesticide is simulated to evaluate its efficacy. These individual simulation models will be organized into a granary-ecosystem model to simulate the dynamics of the ecosystem. Simulation models can be used as parts of an expert system to optimize granary management. A regional model is being developed to predict pest infestations in farm granaries on the Canadian prairies to help local extension personnel warn farmers of potential infestations, and recommend intensive monitoring of their grain and proper management actions. The regional model would use the granary-ecosystem model along with regional estimations of initial storage conditions based on meteorological and other databases. A method to estimate the temperature and moisture content of freshly harvested grain from a meteorological database is being developed.