DYNAMICS OF AN EPIDEMIC IN A CLOSED POPULATION

被引：2

作者：

SVENSSON, A

机构：

来源：

ADVANCES IN APPLIED PROBABILITY | 1993年 / 25卷 / 02期

关键词：

EPIDEMIC MODELS; COUNTING PROCESSES; MARTINGALE LIMIT THEOREMS; SIZE DISTRIBUTION;

D O I：

10.2307/1427654

中图分类号：

O21 [概率论与数理统计]; C8 [统计学];

学科分类号：

020208 ; 070103 ; 0714 ;

摘要：

A simple model for the intensity of infection during an epidemic in a closed population is studied. It is shown that the size of an epidemic (i.e. the number of persons infected) and the cumulative force of an epidemic (i.e. the amount of infectiousness that has to be avoided by a person that will stay uninfected during the entire epidemic) satisfy an equation of balance. Under general conditions, small deviances from this balance are, in large populations, asymptotically mixed normally distributed. For some special epidemic models the size of an asymptotically large epidemic is asymptotically normally distributed.

引用

页码：303 / 313

页数：11

共 50 条

[31] Marine reserves and population recovery or how do closed areas affect exploited population dynamics
Rosenberg, AA
REVIEWS IN FISH BIOLOGY AND FISHERIES, 2001, 10 (04) : 519 - 520
[32] EPIDEMIC OF PULMONARY TUBERCULOSIS IN A CLOSED COMMUNITY
PROTHEROE, C
BRITISH MEDICAL JOURNAL, 1957, 1 (JAN12): : 80 - 82
[33] Mathematical modeling of spatio-temporal population dynamics and application to epidemic spreading
Winkelmann, Stefanie
Zonker, Johannes
Schutte, Christof
Conrad, Natasa Djurdjevac
MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES, 2021, 336 (336)
[34] Dynamics of SIS Epidemic Model with Varying Total Population and Multivaccination Control Strategies
Zhang, F. W.
Nie, L. F.
STUDIES IN APPLIED MATHEMATICS, 2017, 139 (04) : 533 - 550
[35] Epidemic dynamics model with delay and impulsive vaccination control base on variable population
Yang, Zhihui
Jia, Hanmei
MATHEMATICAL METHODS IN THE APPLIED SCIENCES, 2011, 34 (15) : 1822 - 1832
[36] Dynamics of a stochastic heroin epidemic model with bilinear incidence and varying population size
Liu, Shitao
Zhang, Liang
Zhang, Xiao-Bing
Li, Aibing
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMATHEMATICS, 2019, 12 (01)
[37] Dynamics Analysis of a Nonlinear Stochastic SEIR Epidemic System with Varying Population Size
Han, Xiaofeng
Li, Fei
Meng, Xinzhu
ENTROPY, 2018, 20 (05)
[38] OPTIMAL-CONTROL POLICIES FOR REDUCING MAXIMUM SIZE OF A CLOSED EPIDEMIC .2. STOCHASTIC DYNAMICS
WICKWIRE, KH
GUEST, D
MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES, 1976, 32 (1-2) : 1 - 14
[39] OPTIMAL-CONTROL POLICIES FOR REDUCING MAXIMUM SIZE OF A CLOSED EPIDEMIC .1. DETERMINISTIC DYNAMICS
WICKWIRE, KH
MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES, 1976, 30 (1-2) : 129 - 137
[40] EPIDEMIC IN A STRATIFIED POPULATION
WATSON, RK
JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY, 1972, 9 (03) : 659 - &

← 1 2 3 4 5 →