DYNAMICS OF AN EPIDEMIC IN A CLOSED POPULATION

被引：2
|
作者：
SVENSSON, A
机构：
来源：
ADVANCES IN APPLIED PROBABILITY | 1993年 / 25卷 / 02期
关键词：
EPIDEMIC MODELS; COUNTING PROCESSES; MARTINGALE LIMIT THEOREMS; SIZE DISTRIBUTION;
D O I：
10.2307/1427654
中图分类号：
O21 [概率论与数理统计]; C8 [统计学];
学科分类号：
020208 ; 070103 ; 0714 ;
摘要：
A simple model for the intensity of infection during an epidemic in a closed population is studied. It is shown that the size of an epidemic (i.e. the number of persons infected) and the cumulative force of an epidemic (i.e. the amount of infectiousness that has to be avoided by a person that will stay uninfected during the entire epidemic) satisfy an equation of balance. Under general conditions, small deviances from this balance are, in large populations, asymptotically mixed normally distributed. For some special epidemic models the size of an asymptotically large epidemic is asymptotically normally distributed.
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页码：303 / 313
页数：11
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